Core Definition
Separating expectations from reality.
Projection = expected output vs Usage = actual opportunity (targets, carries, routes)
A player can have a high projection but low usage — which makes them overvalued in props.
Why This Matters for Props
Usage always leads projection — not the other way around.
Find Overvalued Players
High projection + low usage often leads to unders.
Find Hidden Value
Low projection + rising usage signals breakout potential.
Detect Market Lag
Books adjust projections slower than real usage changes.
Improve Prop Accuracy
Aligns model output with actual opportunity on the field.
Real NFL Example
Why projection alone can be misleading.
Player projected for 70 yards but only 4 targets
Even with a strong projection, limited usage caps upside. Without increased opportunities, the projection becomes unreliable.
How PlayMaker Uses This
This is a core correction layer in all prop modeling.
Projection Calibration
Adjusts projections based on real usage signals.
Opportunity Weighting
Targets, routes, and carries drive final output.
Mismatch Detection
Finds players mispriced by static projection models.
Prop Edge Identification
Highlights inefficiencies between expectation and reality.
How Projection vs Usage Connects in PlayMaker
See how opportunity and efficiency gaps create betting edges.
Stat Foundations
Built using usage metrics like target share, snap share, and carry share.
View Stats →Relevant Players & Matchups
Quick links to players and matchups impacted by this strategy.
